Paul-Antoine Croizé is the Managing Director of MDELTA
In recent years, Vietnam has captured the attention of economists, investors, and global business leaders, earning its place as a pivotal player in the evolving landscape of Asia. In their book Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star, authors Brook Taylor, CEO of asset management at VinaCapital, and Sam Korsmoe, a seasoned American journalist with over two decades of experience in Vietnam, delve into a critical question: Is Vietnam the next Tiger Economy of Asia? Will it replicate the meteoric growth of South Korea and Taiwan, the original Asian Tigers?
This blog article offers a detailed reading report of this illuminating book, which examines Vietnam’s potential as an economic powerhouse. The authors’ approach—grounded in pragmatic analysis and enriched by real-world examples—makes the book an essential read for anyone invested in Vietnam’s future.
The Hypothesis: Vietnam’s Potential as a Tiger Economy
The central hypothesis of the book is both ambitious and thought-provoking: Vietnam is the next Tiger Economy of Asia, destined to follow a growth trajectory akin to that of South Korea and Taiwan. To test this assertion, the authors build their case through a meticulously structured narrative that begins with foundational context before transitioning into comparative and future-focused analysis.
The Foundations: Vietnam’s History and Current Context
The first six chapters of the book lay the groundwork for understanding Vietnam’s economic potential. These chapters are dedicated to:
- Chapter 1: The Hypothesis – The authors clarify what it means for Vietnam to be a Tiger Economy, emphasizing rapid industrialization, export-oriented growth, and rising living standards as key markers.
- Chapter 2: The First Two Thousand Years – A brief but impactful recounting of Vietnam’s tumultuous past, from colonialism and war to its remarkable post-Đổi Mới (Renovation) reforms in the late 20th century.
- Chapter 3: This is Who We Are – A reflection on Vietnam’s cultural and national identity and its role in shaping the country’s economic and social systems.
- Chapter 4: Open for Business – A snapshot of Vietnam’s present-day economy, including its robust GDP growth, young and dynamic workforce, and burgeoning tech and manufacturing sectors.
- Chapter 5: Free Trade Better Work – Insights into Vietnam’s integration into global trade networks and the advantages of its free trade agreements.
- Chapter 6: Policymakers – A look at the Vietnamese government’s structure and its efforts to craft policies that attract foreign investment and drive economic development.
These foundational chapters serve as a lens through which readers can view Vietnam’s journey so far and its readiness to ascend to the ranks of Asia’s economic elite.
Vietnam’s Comparison with the Original Tigers
The book’s middle chapters are devoted to drawing parallels between Vietnam and the original Asian Tigers—South Korea and Taiwan. This section highlights the following critical comparisons:
- Chapter 7: Is Vietnam a Tiger and Can It Jump?: explores by the numbers whether Vietnam is really a Tiger Economy and whether it has -like Korea & Taiwan, what it takes to “jump out” the Middle Income Trap.
- Chapter 8: What the Asian Tigers Had: A detailed examination of the strategies that propelled Korea and Taiwan to success, including education, high tech investments, post-war grit, and commitment to global trade.
- Chapter 9: The Cards It Holds: Vietnam’s unique advantages, from its strategic geopolitical location to its demographic dividend, are evaluated as tools to fuel its economic ascent.
Real-World Insights: Six Case Studies
The narrative’s depth is enriched through six case studies that highlight specific aspects of Vietnam’s development and assess their impact against the central hypothesis trough 5 testing lenses:
- Education.
- Leapfrog Technology
- The Role of Women
- Tourism, Cuisine, Art, and Olympic Dreams
- Value-added Agriculture
- Public Works
These case studies provide tangible examples of Vietnam’s progress and the factors that position it (or not) as a contender for Tiger Economy status.
The Future: Risks and Opportunities
The final chapters of the book, Chapter 11: The Risks Ahead and Chapter 12: Vietnam in 2050, explore Vietnam’s future, posing the ultimate question: Can Vietnam overcome its challenges to fulfill its Tiger Economy potential?
The authors identify several risks:
- Internal: such as wealth gap or state capacity
- External: such as free trade reversal, geopolitics and climate
Despite not giving a definitive “yes” conclusion, the authors remain optimistic.
Why Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star is a Must-Read
From a reader’s perspective, Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star stands out for its clarity, accessibility, and practical insights. Unlike academic treatises, this book adopts the perspective of field practitioners, blending analytical rigor with firsthand experience. The authors’ backgrounds—one as an asset manager and the other as a journalist—lend the book a unique dual perspective that is both data-driven and narrative-rich.
For business professionals, investors, and anyone intrigued by Vietnam’s rapid transformation, this book is an invaluable resource. Its concise format makes it an easy yet impactful read. The comparative analysis with South Korea and Taiwan provides a framework for understanding Vietnam’s economic trajectory, while the real-world case studies add depth and relatability.
Areas for Further Exploration
While the book excels in many areas, its brevity leaves some topics underexplored. For instance:
- Cultural and Historical Context: A deeper dive into Vietnam’s culture and history would enrich the narrative and provide a more nuanced understanding of its development.
Conclusion: The Verdict on the Hypothesis
So, is Vietnam the next Tiger Economy of Asia? While the authors stop short of offering a definitive answer, their analysis suggests that Vietnam possesses many of the attributes necessary to achieve Tiger status. However, success is contingent on addressing its challenges and leveraging its unique strengths in a competitive and rapidly changing global landscape.
As the world shifts its attention to Asia, Vietnam’s rise is both a fascinating story and a compelling opportunity. For those interested in doing business in Vietnam, investing in its growth, or simply understanding its journey, Vietnam: Asia’s Rising Star is a must-read. With its practical insights and forward-looking perspective, the book is a timely contribution to the discourse on Vietnam’s future—and a reminder of the possibilities that lie ahead in this dynamic nation.
On a personal note, I find myself frequently recommending this book to both foreign and Vietnamese colleagues. Its practicality and insights make it a valuable tool for anyone looking to better understand Vietnam’s evolving role in the global economy.